“We have to recognise how the other team are defending and then we have to find our answer”. – Arne Slot
The above quote is from Arne Slot in his post-match press conference following The Reds’ 0-2 win against Ipswich Town at Portman Road in his first competitive game as Liverpool manager.
The side weren’t tragic in the first half of that game, but weren’t exactly great either. By half time, Liverpool had only created 3 shots amounting to 0.09 xG. Second half, we posted 15 with a resulting 2.56 xG and score the two goals that win us the game. A tactical tweak amongst the now infamous Konate substitution created a whole load of space in the build-up of play to exploit the opposition and create chances at will.
This has been a pattern for Liverpool across the season and before diving deeper with some criticism, it is worth remembering a game takes place across 90 minutes.
It is also a great quality for a manager to have – being able to turn a game around and having several strings to your bow when finding an answer against tricky opposition. It also goes without saying however that being at your best across the 90 is better than being at your best for only 45 minutes.
In his pre-match interview with TNT Sports ahead of last nights 1-1 draw away at Nottingham Forest, the Liverpool manager made somewhat of an admission that I can’t lie to you, given the context of the season so far, it alarmed me…
"I’ve seen quite a lot of games of them, and I was constantly trying to find weaknesses from other teams, but it was very very hard to find."
Against Forest, Liverpool are again, not tragic in the first half, but not great either. The problem this time, and in too many games recently is that we pay for it – we go behind. Forest have built a season on defending their box exceptionally and then hitting teams on the counter, riding the wave of Chris Woods’ endless ability to make his first big chance of the game count. Prior to kick off he was converting 29% of chances – this will prove to be unsustainable in the long run. Unfortunately for Liverpool last night - they met Wood and Forest at the crest of that wave.
If we look at the first half shot map (via Opta) below, Liverpool (in purple) have six shots from poor locations and two of the three inside the box are headers.
The second half shot map however, is almost inverted. Of the fourteen chances, Liverpool only have 3 shots from outside the box and create three chances worth over 0.2 xG – all of which are from the goalscorer, Diogo Jota.
It really is a case of The Good, The Bad and The Ugly last night. The good is obviously the second half and the substitutions from the manager, the bad is a continuation of putting yourself in a position where that is necessary and the ugly is the idea that it doesn’t look as though this will change any time soon…
When I previously mentioned the context of the season so far, we can see below the difference in xG generated between Liverpool at different 15-minute spells in games from 0-90+ minutes (via Understat).
The first 15 minutes are Liverpool at their worst, which in and of itself, isn’t bad. Compare The Reds’ 5.52 xG to Man City’s 9.93 in the same timing and you can at least see there is precedent for achieving better. The theme of working the opposition out is backed by this data as you can see with the highest xG per timing being the 15 minutes immediately after half time, when the manager has gotten his players in and shown them exactly how to exploit the opposition. It is also no surprise that Liverpool score the most goals in this timing as well and so the drop off in the timings afterwards is a natural one. And yet, for the rest of the game, even when Liverpool are in the lead, they are still creating more than in any timing in the first half of games.
There is however a note that must be made here. From the start of games, Liverpool are both underperforming their xG and having variance go against them the other way. We’ve only conceded 1.6 xG from 1-15 mins and conceded five goals in this timing as well. When that game state goes against you, it is hard for any team to find their collective feet.
Game state has rightly become a major aspect of football analysis and Liverpool’s xG difference when drawing is twice that of any other game state. This is obviously very good, but the data around Liverpool’s start to games is still a cause of concern - the game will always start at 0-0 after all.
I have said in recent weeks that I want Liverpool to assert more dominance in games. This side has a plethora of talent to do so and still have some wiggle room to take more risk and change their approach from the off. Fans have had enough of Diaz as a #9 and starting with a traditional one that wants to run in-behind and cause issues for the oppositions defensive line would be a start to getting a foothold and create chances from minute one.
The next three league games are now massive, regardless of what Arsenal do in the meantime. It is entirely possible for Liverpool to just keep doing what they’re doing and win the League this year, given how no one else seems a convincing contender. But showing you can blow teams away or even dominate chances in the first half of games would go a long way to sustaining results and dominance within this League beyond this season.
We are still just six months into Arne Slots reign as Liverpool manager so maybe this will just be a natural progression in the fullness of time. Given his comments at different times this season however, I remain unsure.
Take care.
Good read as usual, Mark. The one thing Slot has been commenting on is how often they face a low block.That's a challenge the Reds struggled with under Klopp, and my hope is they are working on unlocking the low block more in practice given it's become a quite common tactic.
Adding a 4th forward certainly helped last night. While I don't suspect that's something that will be done to start a game, it gave the Reds a great shot at claiming all 3 points if not for some fine goalkeeping from Matz Sels.
This is such a valid point and well articulated.
If I were to steelman the counterpoint, I'd argue that 'yes, it is really difficult to find weaknesses in Forest.' They have a perfect blend of tactics and personnel to execute them which means they are exactly where they deserve to be league-wise. Recovering a draw at their place is therefore a decent outcome.
However, this doesn't account for other matches. I appreciated how you clearly showed there's a trend of Slot's Liverpool starting slow in attack. Seems like a feature rather than a bug, and definitely one worth stamping out.
I would hope that with time and Slot building a team that's much more his in terms of personnel and even approach, Liverpool would build an array of attacking patterns they could deploy reflexively in different game states against different opposition set-ups. Familiarity could mean the players can problem-solve quicker in real-time without needing 15 minutes with Slot in the dressing room to recalibrate. I think this speaks to how difficult it can be for coaches to instil their philosophy deeply without the training time; reason to hope that with another summer, Slot and the team can kick on another level.
But all things considered, Liverpool being where they are with clear room to grow is quite exciting. Thanks for writing this, Mark: you've managed to both excite me and temper the excitement with realism. Slot is quite good at doing this too, come to think of it...